Election Interference Analysis — Coincidence or Coordination? Why Poilievre’s Riding Was Targeted
How redistricting, ballot flooding, and strategic Liberal tactics created unprecedented obstacles in Carleton and beyond.
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Disclaimer:
This analysis was prepared with the assistance of ChatGPT, using the GPT-4o model (May 2025). The findings are based on a structured prompt requesting verification of changes to Pierre Poilievre’s riding (Carleton), comparison of candidate counts across all Canadian ridings in the 2025 federal election, and an evaluation of riding redistributions and their partisan impacts. The model conducted multi-source validation using publicly available data, electoral boundary reports, and national election results to ensure accuracy. Every effort was made to confirm dates, candidate counts, and redistricting impacts using the most reliable and up-to-date information available at the time of writing. Interpretations reflect the author’s perspective and are not intended as legal or electoral advice.
Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton Riding and Boundary Changes
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, did run for re-election in the Carleton riding in the 2025 federal election - en.wikipedia.org. This riding underwent significant redistricting prior to the 2025 election as part of a nationwide redistribution based on the 2021 census. In fact, Carleton was effectively merged with parts of neighboring districts. The riding lost some suburban areas and gained extensive rural territory that had previously belonged to other ridings (notably the former Kanata—Carleton district) - en.wikipedia.org. According to Elections Canada, Carleton’s new boundaries stretched from Renfrew County in the west to Prescott–Russell in the east, incorporating communities such as Stittsville, Osgoode, Constance Bay, and Fitzroy Harbour that were not previously in the riding - algonquintimes.com. At the same time, certain suburban neighbourhoods (for example, the Findlay Creek area in south Ottawa) were removed from Carleton and allocated to adjacent ridings - en.wikipedia.org.
These boundary changes altered the voter base in Carleton going into 2025. The redistribution swapped out many of Carleton’s few urban/suburban polls for more rural areas within Ottawa’s city limits - en.wikipedia.org. In general, rural parts of Ottawa have tended to vote more strongly Conservative, whereas the suburban sections that were removed (or kept in the new Kanata riding) include more Liberal-leaning voters. Thus, on paper the new Carleton riding was even more favorable to Poilievre’s Conservatives than the old boundaries had been. Indeed, political observers noted that despite some uncertainty about unfamiliar areas, the redistricting was expected to keep Carleton a Conservative stronghold for Poilievre - hilltimes.com, en.wikipedia.org. In other words, the influx of rural voters (from areas like Dunrobin, Kinburn and other communities added from Kanata—Carleton) was thought to bolster Poilievre’s base, potentially increasing his margin, while the Liberal vote would be diluted by the loss of certain suburbs - en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org.
Impact on Poilievre’s Reelection Chances: In theory, these changes should have improved Poilievre’s chances of reelection by making the riding more demographically Conservative. For example, one analysis pointed out that Carleton’s redistribution resulted in “the riding’s few urban polls being swapped for other rural areas”, presumably to Poilievre’s benefit - en.wikipedia.org. Early in the campaign, local strategists still saw Carleton as “a stronghold for Poilievre” despite the new map - hilltimes.com. However, the large-scale boundary shift introduced some uncertainty. Poilievre was now appealing to new constituents in far-flung parts of Ottawa (villages and rural towns newly added to Carleton) while having lost some suburban voters he had represented previously. This meant his campaign had to account for a changed voter landscape, and any lapse in voter outreach could be risky. In the end, the race in Carleton proved much tighter than past elections – reflecting perhaps not only the riding’s redraw but also the heightened profile of the contest. (Notably, Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy defeated Poilievre in Carleton in 2025, an upset outcome - en.wikipedia.org that surprised many given the riding’s history. The defeat underscored that redistricting alone did not guarantee Poilievre’s safety, especially amid a strong Liberal surge in the Ottawa area.) Still, on paper the boundary changes had been expected to favor him by shifting the electorate toward more traditionally Conservative rural voters - en.wikipedia.org.
Unprecedented Number of Candidates on the Carleton Ballot (2025)
The Carleton riding set a record for candidate count in 2025, featuring an astonishing 91 candidates on the ballot - hilltimes.com. Pierre Poilievre’s name was one of them, but the vast majority were little-known independents or minor party entrants. This ballot length was by far the highest in Canada that year, and in fact 91 candidates tied the all-time record for the most candidates in any federal riding in Canadian history - en.wikipedia.org. By comparison, a typical riding contest in 2025 had only a handful of candidates – usually the major five parties (Liberal, Conservative, New Democratic, Green, People’s Party) and perhaps one or two others. It was extremely unusual to see double-digit candidates, let alone nearly a hundred. For example, in other Ottawa-area ridings like Ottawa West–Nepean or Nepean, only 4 or 5 candidates were on the ballot - algonquintimes.com, algonquintimes.com, which is about the norm. Carleton’s 91 candidates therefore stood out as an anomaly nationally.
The reason Carleton’s candidate list ballooned to such a length was a coordinated effort by a group of electoral reform advocates calling themselves the “Longest Ballot Committee.” This group deliberately recruited dozens of extra candidates to flood the ballot as a protest against the first-past-the-post system - toronto.citynews.ca, toronto.city, news.ca. In Carleton, they succeeded beyond precedent: 85 out of the 91 candidates were affiliated with this protest initiative - toronto.citynews.ca, all aiming to create a “longest ballot” spectacle. Elections Canada had to print nearly one-metre-long ballots with two columns of names to accommodate the list - toronto.citynews.ca. Voter turnout in Carleton was remarkably high (over 80% - toronto.citynews.ca), and while the logistical challenges – such as longer counting time – were real, the presence of so many names did not significantly affect the outcome in terms of vote splitting. In fact, despite the crowded field, the vote remained essentially a two-way fight between the Liberal and Conservative nominees; all those dozens of extra protest candidates collectively garnered only a tiny fraction of the vote (on the order of a few dozen votes combined) - en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org. Nonetheless, Carleton’s 91-candidate ballot was the largest in the 2025 election (no other riding came close to that number) and served its intended purpose of drawing attention. It even caused Carleton to tie a record for the longest federal ballot ever in Canada - en.wikipedia.org – a record that underscores just how unique the situation was.
Widespread Riding Mergers and Changes Across Canada (Liberal vs. Conservative Impacts)
The 2025 federal election was fought on a new electoral map. Ridings across Canada were changed or merged as a result of the decennial redistribution that followed the 2021 census. In total, the House of Commons expanded from 338 seats to 343 seats for 2025, adding 5 new ridings nationwide - en.wikipedia.org. These new districts were created in provinces with growing populations (notably Alberta gained 3 seats, Ontario gained 1, and British Columbia gained 1, while other provinces’ seat counts remained the same) - en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org. Consequently, dozens of existing ridings had their boundaries redrawn, with some being effectively split or renamed, and a few previous ridings disappearing into new ones. In fact, almost every riding in Canada saw at least minor boundary adjustments, and many underwent major changes. For example, in Ottawa the former riding of Kanata—Carleton was eliminated and split: it was replaced by a new Kanata riding and a substantially reconfigured Carleton riding - algonquintimes.com, algonquintimes.com. Similarly, in suburban Toronto’s Halton region, the old riding of Milton was carved up to create new districts – Burlington North—Milton West and Milton East—Halton Hills South – drawing different parts of Milton and Halton Hills into separate constituencies - en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org. These are just two examples among many.
The key question is whether these changes predominantly favored Liberal or Conservative strongholds. Overall, the redistribution tended to bolster Conservative representation slightly more than Liberal. An analysis of the notional 2021 election results on the new 2025 boundaries showed that, had the 2021 votes been counted under the new map, the Conservatives would have won about 7 more seats than they actually did, while the Liberals would have won 3 fewer - en.wikipedia.org. This suggests the new boundaries were net advantageous to the Conservatives. The reasons are straightforward: most of the new seats were added in areas where Conservatives are strong (for instance, fast-growing exurban communities in Alberta and outskirts of Ontario cities), and the boundary shifts often packed more conservative-leaning voters into certain districts. For example, Alberta’s 3 additional ridings were in suburban/rural areas around Calgary and Edmonton that historically vote Conservative, effectively giving the Tories new safe seats or making existing seats easier to hold. In one new Alberta riding – likely one carved out of the old boundaries in the foothills or Edmonton-area suburbs – the Conservative candidate won handily, reflecting the continuation of Tory dominance there (indeed, the newly created districts in Alberta were all won by Conservatives in 2025). Likewise in British Columbia, the extra seat was created in a region like the B.C. Interior or Fraser Valley, which tend to lean Conservative; for instance, the new Columbia–Kootenay–Southern Rockies riding (formed by splitting up an existing interior B.C. seat) was won by a Conservative (Rob Morrison) in 2025 - en.wikipedia.org.
That said, not every boundary change benefited Conservatives exclusively – some changes shored up Liberal positions or created new opportunities for Liberals and other parties. In urban and suburban areas, the redistribution commissions try to keep communities together, which sometimes meant formerly mixed areas were separated. For instance, the creation of the new Kanata riding in Ottawa (separating it from rural Carleton) left Kanata mainly as a suburban seat where the Liberals had strength. Indeed, Kanata’s incumbent MP, Liberal Jenna Sudds, ran in the new Kanata riding and it remained in Liberal hands in 2025 - algonquintimes.com, algonquintimes.com. Meanwhile, the Carleton riding became more rural-Conservative (as discussed earlier), which was thought to favor the Tory side. In the Halton region example: Burlington North—Milton West combined a portion of Milton (previously represented by Liberal Adam van Koeverden) with part of Burlington, and van Koeverden was able to win that new seat for the Liberals in 2025 with about 52.7% of the vote - en.wikipedia.org. By contrast, the adjacent new Milton East—Halton Hills South riding combined territory from a Liberal-held area (Milton’s eastern parts) with the traditionally Conservative Halton Hills; that seat turned into a highly competitive race between the two parties, ultimately requiring a recount due to a razor-thin margin- en.wikipedia.org. In effect, one new Halton-area district went Liberal, the other leaned Conservative – a split outcome.
In summary, the 2025 redistribution changed a great many ridings across Canada, often merging or splitting communities, but its partisan impact was relatively balanced with a slight tilt toward Conservative advantages. Liberal strongholds in urban centers largely remained intact (no new ridings were added in, say, Atlantic Canada or inner-city Toronto/Montreal where Liberals dominate; those boundaries mostly shifted within margins). Conservative strongholds gained more weight or additional seats in fast-growing areas (Western provinces, outer suburbs). The net result was that the electoral map’s changes “predominantly” – if one must choose – favored the Conservatives in terms of seat math, as evidenced by the notional seat gains - en.wikipedia.org. However, each region had its nuances. Some formerly safe Liberal seats became a bit less safe and vice versa. What is clear is that many ridings were redrawn (with five completely new ridings created), and both major parties had to adapt. Strongholds mostly remained strongholds, just with new boundaries: e.g. a Liberal stronghold like downtown Toronto was unaffected, a Conservative stronghold like rural Alberta simply got subdivided to create more seats, and swing areas like the Ottawa suburbs were split in ways that each party could still contend. The 2025 election results bore out these patterns, with the Liberals and Conservatives each winning in their expected bastions and fiercely contesting the newly formed battleground districts.
Sources:
Elections Canada & media reports on the 2022 Federal Redistribution (new ridings and boundaries)en.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
Ottawa-area riding descriptions (Algonquin Times)algonquintimes.comalgonquintimes.com
Carleton riding changes on Wikipedia (2025 boundaries and added communities)en.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
The Hill Times – “Carleton remains a stronghold for Poilievre…” (noting boundary changes and candidate count)hilltimes.com
2025 Carleton ballot and candidate count (Wikipedia/CTV News)en.wikipedia.orgtoronto.citynews.ca
Election results and analysis: Carleton 2021 vs 2025, and national notional results on new mapen.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
Very interesting and thoughtful analysis. Given the complete lack of democracy in Canada I fully back electoral reform and Proportional Representation. Our FPTP - First Past The Post is a construction of our UniParty - Cons and Libs that squash any other party - thus another voice at the table. We can never relay on the UniParty to provide us with more representative government - it is not in their self-interest. That is the biggest problem and Elephant in the room - in Canadian politics. And MSM and our political talking heads gleefully ignore it - and endlessly talk about the game and drama of our current electoral system. 80% of ridings already have a determined winner rendering your vote meaningless - which people should realize.
So why did Pierre lose?